SWAG on $TWTR
SWAG on Copper $HGM6
After our successful run up with “coffee” $KCN6 we will be going for another futures trade which is “copper” or HGM6 at the Commodities Exchange (COMEX) in New York. Just like any other futures contract HGM6 has its own specifications.
|Trading Unit:||25,000 pounds|
|Tick Size:||0.05 cents/lb. = $12.50|
|Quoted Units:||US $ per pound|
|Initial Margin:||$7,763 Maint Margin: $5,750|
|Contract Months:||All 12 months.|
|First Notice Day:||Last business day of month preceding contract month.|
|Last Trading Day:||Third last business day of the month.|
|Trading Hours:||Open outcry trading is conducted from 8:10 A.M. until 1:00 P.M.
Electronic: 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 A.M. the following day.
Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time.
|Daily Limit:||$0.20 (20 cents) per pound|
Unlike KCN6 or “coffee” , HGM6 has no quality check on the actual nuggets, bars or copper ingots or how it will be settled whether physical or cash. But as swing or position trader in the futures we’re only concerned at the current action of the future contract’s market price, so somehow it’s traded like an equity, only more predictable.
SWAG on Copper
Robots will advise a “sell”, I will go for accumulate as blue line SMA(20) and red line EMA(13) crosses are imminent which will cause to bring the price of copper up with Parabolic SAR confirming the reversal of trend. Suggested price entries from 211.00 – 209.00 setting the stop loss at 205.00
SWAG on Rocket Internet $RKET
Rocket Internet is a German company I know little about:
- It’s listed in XETRA (DAX) or the German stock exchange
- It operates ZALORA in the Philippines and is one of the top online shopping sites that keeps Henry Sy and the rest of the traditional retailers up at night.
- How it operates, with true German characteristic of success: Thoroughness.
Rocket Internet is not an investor, they are builders. How do SWAG fits in? Let’s look at the stock data
|TYPE OF SHARES||ORDINARY BEARER SHARES WITH NO PAR VALUE (STÜCKAKTIEN)|
|STOCK EXCHANGE||FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE|
|MARKET SEGMENT||NON-REGULATED MARKET (ENTRY STANDARD)|
|FIRST DAY OF TRADING||2 OCTOBER 2014|
|ISSUE PRICE||EUR 42.50|
|ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL||EUR 165,140,790|
As of this writing RKET’s free float is 21.5% of the outstanding shares, $TEL is holding 6.1%, The imminent SWAG signals has spoken.
The SMA(20) and EMA(13) impending cross is on the horizon, we already entered at 20,20EUR and accumulation is in progress. The nice thing about the German market is it operates with clockwork precision.
SWAG on Coffee $KCN6
As we have claimed several times, SWAG works on all markets and that includes commodities. How? Same thing as how SWAG works on Forex, equities and bonds, the Almighty SMA(20) and EMA(13) crosses. Let’s run down how we did it on “coffee”.
From the previous post we talked about “Who Trades Coffee?” well, it’s not just a question, it’s a question with substance as after that post we submitted our market order for KCN6 at 2 x 37,500lbs and in the 5-minute SWAG chart we already gained 0.67% still far away from our target of 20% but that is $567.96 in profits after commission and others
Being the second most traded commodity in the market, there’s no way anyone can hype “coffee”, the old way of controlling price is destroying excess supply might still be in practice today. When you learn how to use SWAG in commodities, there nothing else to do except exploit the power of its core indicators such SMA(20)/EMA(13), Parabolic SAR just how it’s done in other instruments or markets.
Who Trades Coffee?
Next to oil, no, it’s not gold, I’m sorry, but coffee is the second most traded commodity in the market. Originally cultivated in the hills of Ethiopia, coffee has been revered as the beverage of the gods and has been traded in different markets for thousands of years.
Coffee, in the modern market is traded through the futures contract, we’ll be discussing futures contract, of course, in the near future as part of our livestream at Soul Of The Market.
An example of a coffee commodity futures contract.
|Coffee Contract Specifications|
|Ticker Symbol||Open Outcry: KC (ICE)
Electronic: EKC (ICE)
|Contract Size||37,500 pounds|
|Deliverable Grades||Arabica Coffee: A Notice of Certification is issued based on testing the grade of the beans and by cup testing for flavor. The exchange uses certain coffees to establish the “basis.” Coffees judged superior are at a premium; those judged inferior are discounted.|
|Contract Months||March, May, July, Sept, Dec|
|Trading Hours||Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): Monday-Friday 1:30am-3:15pm EST|
|Last Trading Day||One business day prior to last notice day|
|Last Notice Day||Seven business days prior to the last business day of the delivery month|
|Price Quote||Cents and hundredths of a cent up to two decimal places|
|Tick Size||.05 cent/pound = $18.75 per contract|
|Daily Price Limit
(Not applicable in electronic markets)
If you try to buy or sell a coffee contract you’ll see something like this
This means that “Coffee” (KC) July (N) 2016 (6) is currently priced at $1.1925/pound because future commodities such as coffee, sugar, orange juice are quoted in cents per pound. In this case a trader $119.25 is equal to $1,192.50 per pound, so how can you afford that? We’ll discuss later on the subject about margins. The value of the commodity contract is always based on the current price of the market multiplied by the actual value of the contract itself. In this instance, the contract size is 37,5000 pounds
$1.1925 x 37,500 = $44,718.75
How can a retail investor from an emerging market like the Philippines can afford that? Without access to capital? This is where margins come in, commodities are always traded in margins and the margin changes based on the market volatility and the current face value of the contract. Looking at the screenshot above, the maintenance margin is at $4,800 but the initial margin that this particular account is already at $5,280. This means the account owner can buy “coffee” without exceeding the margin impact. This is how anyone who understands futures contract takes advantage of the opportunity to trade commodities like “coffee”.
Most Traded Currency Pairs
For some people who are starting out on FX, there are so many currency pairs out there that makes FX trading quite overwhelming, there are major pairs and exotic pairs. For this post, I’ll just list down the most traded major pairs so that newbies can get a quick headstart on trading FX. Here we go.
EUR/USD (euro/dollar) – “euro”
USD/JPY (U.S. dollar/Japanese yen) – “gopher”
GBP/USD (British pound/dollar) – “cable”
USD/CHF (U.S. dollar/Swiss franc) – “swissie”
Top Ten Most Traded Commodities
The list of the most common commodities and the exchanges they are normally dealt through are given below:
- Crude Oil and derivatives – The most commonly traded commodity is Crude Oil, and its various derivatives such as heating oil and gasoline. These commodities are mostly traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], ICE Futures, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange [DME] and the Central Japan Commodity Exchange [C-COM].
- Coffee – The second most traded commodity is Coffee [value wise]. Coffee is mainly traded through the New York Board of Trade [NYBOT], the Kansai Commodities Exchange [in Osaka, Japan], the Singapore Commodities Exchange [SICOM] and Euronext [London].
- Agriculture – Common commodities in agriculture include wheat, corn, maize, oats, rice, soybeans and they are traded in the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT], the Kansai Commodities Exchange [in Osaka, Japan], the Risk Management Exchange [RMX-in Hannover], the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange [WCE], The Tokyo Grain Exchange [TGE] and Euronext.
- Animals and Animal Products – Animals and animal products such as live and feeder cattle, beef, frozen and fresh pork bellies, and eggs are mainly traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME], Euronext, the Risk Management Exchange [RMX-in Hannover] and the Central Japan Commodity Exchange [C-COM].
- Cocoa, Butter, Orange juice and Sugar – Items like cocoa, butter, orange juice and sugar are also commonly traded in the New York Board of trade [NYBOT] and Euronext.
- Metals – Metals such as aluminum, nickel, copper, lead and ferrous scrap are mainly traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], the London Metal Exchange [LME], the Shangai Futures Exchange [SFE], the Central Japan Commodities Exchange, Hedgestreet Exchange [in California], and the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
- Precious Metals – The other commonly traded commodities are precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum and they are traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange [BMF], the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange [DGCX], the National Commodity Exchange Limited [in Karachi, Pakistan] and the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
- Plastic – Plastic is traded in the London Metal Exchange [LME] and the Dalian Community Exchange [DCE-China]
- Natural Gas – Natural gas is traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX] and ICE Futures.
- Bio-fuels – Bio-fuels is another upcoming commodity and is now being traded in the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange [BMF], the Bursa Malaysia [MDEX], the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT], the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME] and the New York Board of trade [NYBOT
Everything You Hear About Apple Is Bad News And It's Good ($AAPL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL), even the non-traders know this company, is on the losing for more than a week. Has it lost its mojo? I don’t care. No cool products coming in? I don’t care, Apple has always been in its element of the cool anyway.
So what makes Apple’s bad news a good news? Well, part of the SWAGGER’s philosophy which is basically textbook philosophy are; Buy On Bad News, Buy On Fear. Anyone can read anything about AAPL elsewhere but I’m focusing on the what really matters from the SWAG perspective. Pulling off the charts we can see SMA(20) blue line over EMA(13) red line meaning a SWAG cross is inevitable that will trigger a technical buy signal but the actual cross is not the point where you should buy, it should be before the cross. The fear is characterized by the direction of the Money Flow Index which is going below 20% oversold. Forget about what the robo-adviser is telling you, entering beyond 20% oversold is really buying the fear. The Parabolic SAR is still in bearish trend which makes AAPL less attractive to the fearful.
What do you get from buying on bad news? You can buy at the theoretical bottom, you can buy at a better deal, cheaper price and then wait for the SWAG signals to do it’s thing, let the profits run. Sell when happy to the greedy.
Crown Asia Outlook
I have created a SWAG cheat sheet where $CROWN is included here
If you like the see the fundamentals here it is, it’s generally getting better.
For the fiscal year ended : Dec 31, 2015
Currency(and units, if applicable) : Php
|Item||Current Year||Previous Year|
|Stockholders’ Equity – Parent||849,911,577||562,899,419|
|Item||Current Year||Previous Year|
|Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax||146,352,033||93,721,975|
|Net Income/(Loss) After Tax||100,146,977||65,380,323|
|Net Income/(Loss) Attributable to Parent||0||0|
|Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Basic)||0.17||0.14|
|Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Diluted)||0.17||0.14|
For the period ended : Sep 30, 2015
Currency(and units, if applicable) : Php
|Item||Period Ended||Fiscal Year Ended(Audited)|
|Stockholders’ Equity – Parent||818,704,158||562,899,419|
|Item||Current Year (3 Months)||Previous Year (3 Months)||Current Year-To-Date||Previous Year-To-Date|
|Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax||41,748,519||37,731,064||100,728,184||63,158,056|
|Net Income/(Loss) After Tax||29,219,220||26,998,293||70,495,515||44,042,108|
|Net Income/(Loss) Attributable to Parent||0||0||0||0|
|Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Basic)||0.05||0.06||0.15||0.12|
|Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Diluted)||0.05||0.06||0.15||0.12|
But then again, what drives stock prices to go up or down? Supply and demand, no matter how good the company is if the supply and demand for its shares in the market is not attractive then no one’s going to buy it. Let’s look at the stock data.
|Issue Type||Common||Outstanding Shares||630,800,000|
|Listing Date||Apr 27, 2015||Issued Shares||630,800,000|
|Board Lot||1,000||Free Float Level(%)||47.37%|
|Par Value||1.00||Foreign Ownership Limit(%)||40%|
|Last Traded Price||Open||Previous Close and Date||2.34 (Apr 25, 2016)|
|Change(% Change)||down (%)||High||P/E Ratio|
|Value||Low||Sector P/E Ratio|
|Volume||Average Price||Book Value|
|52-Week High||3.33||52-Week Low||1.50||P/BV Ratio|
What the SWAG is telling us is SMA (20) is over EMA (13) with MFI below 20% oversold and Parabolic SAR about to stop and reverse.
HOLDING PERIOD: T+90
As mandated by law, being a Certified Securities Representative, I can not guarantee against loss.