SWAG on $DIS (Disney)


The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American diversified multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios in Burbank, California.Wikipedia
CEO: Bob Iger
Founded: October 16, 1923, Los Angeles, California, United States
Headquarters: Burbank, California, United States
Revenue: 52.46 billion USD (2015)
Net income: 8.38 billion USD (2015)
Subsidiaries: Pixar, Walt Disney World, Marvel Comics, more
Founders: Roy O. Disney, Walt Disney
We’ll skip the fundamentals for now and look at our SWAG signals
DIS
For $DIS, Aladdin will be really excited on how things are taking shape, Money Flow Index is already pointing up meaing smart money is flowing in. SMA20 over EMA13, the next cross is a total no-brainer, the last confirmation we are looking at is the PSAR that will soon change position from bearish to bullish. Definitely not for shorting.
RECOMMENDATION: BUY



SWAG on $TWTR


Twitter is an online social networking service that enables users to send and read short 140-character messages called “tweets”. Registered users can read and post tweets, but those who are unregistered can only read them. Wikipedia
Founded: March 21, 2006, San Francisco, California, United States
CEO : Jack Dorsey
Headquarters : San Francisco, California, United States
Founders:   Evan Williams,  Noah Glass Jack Dorsey
Biz Stone
If you’re trading very liquid securities, fundamentals doesn’t really matter. If you shorted $TWTR other day you lost a lot of yesterday.
SWAG trading system works the same in the US equities market much better than how it works in the Philippine equities market, if you can make money in PSE using SWAG, US markets is way easier.
Let’s look at Twitter’s SWAG chart:
TWTR
Currently, it’s SMA20 over EMA13 which is a clear buy signal and yes, if you bought after the gap down because you saw the death cross (EMA13/SMA20) congratulations, the outcome is always a self-fulfilling prophecy. Can you still buy TWTR? Yes, when the market opens and be ready for the gap to be filled and it will be an elementary textbook play. The other indicators that are ready to confirm the cross is the PSAR which is about to change trend and the money flow index pointing towards 75% overbought meaning the smart money is moving in.
Recommendation: BUY



SWAG on Copper $HGM6


After our successful run up with “coffee” $KCN6 we will be going for another futures trade which is “copper” or HGM6 at the Commodities Exchange (COMEX) in New York. Just like any other futures contract HGM6 has its own specifications.

Contract Specifications:HG_,COMEX

Trading Unit: 25,000 pounds
Tick Size: 0.05 cents/lb. = $12.50
Quoted Units: US $ per pound
Initial Margin: $7,763   Maint Margin: $5,750
Contract Months: All 12 months.
First Notice Day: Last business day of month preceding contract month.
Last Trading Day: Third last business day of the month.
Trading Hours: Open outcry trading is conducted from 8:10 A.M. until 1:00 P.M.
Electronic: 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 A.M. the following day.
Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time.
Daily Limit: $0.20 (20 cents) per pound

 

Unlike KCN6 or “coffee” , HGM6 has no quality check on the actual nuggets, bars or copper ingots or how it will be settled whether physical or cash. But as swing or position trader in the futures we’re only concerned at the current action of the future contract’s market price, so somehow it’s traded like an equity, only more predictable.

SWAG on Copper

HGM6

Robots will advise a “sell”, I will go for accumulate as blue line SMA(20) and red line EMA(13) crosses are imminent which will cause to bring the price of copper up with Parabolic SAR confirming the reversal of trend. Suggested price entries from 211.00 – 209.00 setting the stop loss at 205.00




SWAG on Rocket Internet $RKET


Rocket Internet is a German company I know little about:

  1. It’s listed in XETRA (DAX) or the German stock exchange
  2. It operates ZALORA in the Philippines and is one of the top online shopping sites that keeps Henry Sy and the rest of the traditional retailers up at night.
  3. How it operates, with true German characteristic of success: Thoroughness.

rocket-internet

Rocket Internet is not an investor, they are builders. How do SWAG fits in? Let’s look at the stock data

TYPE OF SHARES ORDINARY BEARER SHARES WITH NO PAR VALUE (STÜCKAKTIEN)
STOCK EXCHANGE FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
MARKET SEGMENT NON-REGULATED MARKET (ENTRY STANDARD)
FIRST DAY OF TRADING 2 OCTOBER 2014
ISSUE PRICE EUR 42.50
SHARES OUTSTANDING 165,140,790
ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL EUR 165,140,790
ISIN DE000A12UKK6
WKN A12UKK
TICKER SYMBOL RKET
COMMON CODE 111314110
THOMSON REUTERS RKET.DE
BLOOMBERG RKET:GR

As of this writing RKET’s free float is 21.5% of the outstanding shares, $TEL is holding 6.1%, The imminent SWAG signals has spoken.

RKet-05102016

The SMA(20) and EMA(13) impending cross is on the horizon, we already entered at 20,20EUR and accumulation is in progress. The nice thing about the German market is it operates with clockwork precision.




SWAG on Coffee $KCN6


As we have claimed several times, SWAG works on all markets and that includes commodities. How? Same thing as how SWAG works on Forex, equities and bonds, the Almighty SMA(20) and EMA(13) crosses. Let’s run down how we did it on “coffee”.

From the previous post we talked about “Who Trades Coffee?” well, it’s not just a question, it’s a question with substance as after that post we submitted our market order for KCN6 at 2 x 37,500lbs and in the 5-minute SWAG chart we already gained 0.67% still far away from our target of 20% but that is $567.96 in profits after commission and others

kcn6-5

kcn6-5m

Being the second most traded commodity in the market, there’s no way anyone can hype “coffee”, the old way of controlling price is destroying excess supply might still be in practice today. When you learn how to use SWAG in commodities, there nothing else to do except exploit the power of its core indicators such SMA(20)/EMA(13), Parabolic SAR just how it’s done in other instruments or markets.




Who Trades Coffee?


Next to oil, no, it’s not gold, I’m sorry, but coffee is the second most traded commodity in the market. Originally cultivated in the hills of Ethiopia, coffee has been revered as the beverage of the gods and has been traded in different markets for thousands of years.

coffee

Coffee, in the modern market is traded through the futures contract, we’ll be discussing futures contract, of course, in the near future as part of our livestream at Soul Of The Market.

An example of a coffee commodity futures contract.

 

Coffee Contract Specifications
Ticker Symbol Open Outcry: KC (ICE)
Electronic: EKC (ICE)
Contract Size 37,500 pounds
Deliverable Grades Arabica Coffee: A Notice of Certification is issued based on testing the grade of the beans and by cup testing for flavor. The exchange uses certain coffees to establish the “basis.” Coffees judged superior are at a premium; those judged inferior are discounted.
Contract Months March, May, July, Sept, Dec
Trading Hours Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): Monday-Friday 1:30am-3:15pm EST
Last Trading Day One business day prior to last notice day
Last Notice Day Seven business days prior to the last business day of the delivery month
Price Quote Cents and hundredths of a cent up to two decimal places
Tick Size .05 cent/pound = $18.75 per contract
Daily Price Limit
(Not applicable in electronic markets)
None

If you try to buy or sell a coffee contract you’ll see something like this

kcn6

This means that “Coffee” (KC) July (N) 2016 (6) is currently priced at $1.1925/pound because future commodities such as coffee, sugar, orange juice are quoted in cents per pound. In this case a trader $119.25 is equal to $1,192.50 per pound, so how can you afford that? We’ll discuss later on the subject about margins. The value of the commodity contract is always based on the current price of the market multiplied by the actual value of the contract itself. In this instance, the contract size is 37,5000 pounds

$1.1925 x 37,500 = $44,718.75

How can a retail investor from an emerging market like the Philippines can afford that? Without access to capital? This is where margins come in, commodities are always traded in margins and the margin changes based on the market volatility and the current face value of the contract. Looking at the screenshot above, the maintenance margin is at $4,800 but the initial margin that this particular account is already at $5,280. This means the account owner can buy “coffee” without exceeding the margin impact. This is how anyone who understands futures contract takes advantage of the opportunity to trade commodities like “coffee”.




Most Traded Currency Pairs


For some people who are starting out on FX, there are so many currency pairs out there that makes FX trading quite overwhelming, there are major pairs and exotic pairs. For this post, I’ll just list down the most traded major pairs so that newbies can get a quick headstart on trading FX. Here we go.

 

EUR/USD (euro/dollar) – “euro”
USD/JPY (U.S. dollar/Japanese yen) – “gopher”
GBP/USD (British pound/dollar) – “cable”
USD/CHF (U.S. dollar/Swiss franc) – “swissie”

Read more: Most Traded Pairs – Forex Walkthrough | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/getting-started/pairs.aspx#ixzz47bWTFTgF
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Top Ten Most Traded Commodities


The list of the most common commodities and the exchanges they are normally dealt through are given below:

  1. Crude Oil and derivatives – The most commonly traded commodity is Crude Oil, and its various derivatives such as heating oil and gasoline. These commodities are mostly traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], ICE Futures, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange [DME] and the Central Japan Commodity Exchange [C-COM].
  2. Coffee – The second most traded commodity is Coffee [value wise]. Coffee is mainly traded through the New York Board of Trade [NYBOT], the Kansai Commodities Exchange [in Osaka, Japan], the Singapore Commodities Exchange [SICOM] and Euronext [London].
  3. Agriculture – Common commodities in agriculture include wheat, corn, maize, oats, rice, soybeans and they are traded in the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT], the Kansai Commodities Exchange [in Osaka, Japan], the Risk Management Exchange [RMX-in Hannover], the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange [WCE], The Tokyo Grain Exchange [TGE] and Euronext.
  4. Animals and Animal Products – Animals and animal products such as live and feeder cattle, beef, frozen and fresh pork bellies, and eggs are mainly traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME], Euronext, the Risk Management Exchange [RMX-in Hannover] and the Central Japan Commodity Exchange [C-COM].
  5. Cocoa, Butter, Orange juice and Sugar – Items like cocoa, butter, orange juice and sugar are also commonly traded in the New York Board of trade [NYBOT] and Euronext.
  6. Metals – Metals such as aluminum, nickel, copper, lead and ferrous scrap are mainly traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], the London Metal Exchange [LME], the Shangai Futures Exchange [SFE], the Central Japan Commodities Exchange, Hedgestreet Exchange [in California], and the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
  7. Precious Metals – The other commonly traded commodities are precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum and they are traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange [BMF], the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange [DGCX], the National Commodity Exchange Limited [in Karachi, Pakistan] and the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
  8. Plastic –  Plastic is traded in the London Metal Exchange [LME] and the Dalian Community Exchange [DCE-China]
  9. Natural Gas –  Natural gas is traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX] and ICE Futures.
  10. Bio-fuels – Bio-fuels is another upcoming commodity and is now being traded in the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange [BMF], the Bursa Malaysia [MDEX], the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT], the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME] and the New York Board of trade [NYBOT

Commodities_2048x2048

source: http://www.investorguide.com/article/11836/what-are-the-most-commonly-traded-commodities-igu/




Everything You Hear About Apple Is Bad News And It's Good ($AAPL)


Apple Inc. (AAPL), even the non-traders know this company, is on the losing for more than a week. Has it lost its mojo? I don’t care. No cool products coming in? I don’t care, Apple has always been in its element of the cool anyway.

So what makes Apple’s bad news a good news? Well, part of the SWAGGER’s philosophy which is basically textbook philosophy are; Buy On Bad News, Buy On Fear. Anyone can read anything about AAPL elsewhere but I’m focusing on the what really matters from the SWAG perspective. Pulling off the charts we can see SMA(20) blue line over EMA(13) red line meaning a SWAG cross is inevitable that will trigger a technical buy signal but the actual cross is not the point where you should buy, it should be before the cross. The fear is characterized by the direction of the Money Flow Index which is going below 20% oversold. Forget about what the robo-adviser is telling you, entering beyond 20% oversold is really buying the fear. The Parabolic SAR is still in bearish trend which makes AAPL less attractive to the fearful.

aapl

What do you get from buying on bad news? You can buy at the theoretical bottom, you can buy at a better deal, cheaper price and then wait for the SWAG signals to do it’s thing, let the profits run. Sell when happy to the greedy.

 




Crown Asia Outlook


I have created a SWAG cheat sheet where $CROWN is included here

Cheat Sheet

If you like the see the fundamentals here it is, it’s generally getting better.

Annual

For the fiscal year ended : Dec 31, 2015
Currency(and units, if applicable) : Php

Balance Sheet
Item Current Year Previous Year
Current Assets 732,098,166 604,236,040
Total Assets 1,000,023,332 829,048,098
Current Liabilities 132,644,088 251,101,291
Total Liabilities 150,111,755 266,148,679
Retained Earnings/(Deficit) 133,150,397 58,003,420
Stockholders’ Equity 849,911,577 562,899,419
Stockholders’ Equity – Parent 849,911,577 562,899,419
Book Value 1.35 1.19
Income Statement
Item Current Year Previous Year
Gross Revenue 1,078,724,070 852,504,574
Gross Expense 932,372,037 758,782,599
Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax 146,352,033 93,721,975
Net Income/(Loss) After Tax 100,146,977 65,380,323
Net Income/(Loss) Attributable to Parent 0 0
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Basic) 0.17 0.14
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Diluted) 0.17 0.14

Quarterly

For the period ended : Sep 30, 2015
Currency(and units, if applicable) : Php

Balance Sheet
Item Period Ended Fiscal Year Ended(Audited)
Current Assets 748,512,362 604,236,040
Total Assets 1,011,010,686 829,048,098
Current Liabilities 176,586,813 251,101,291
Total Liabilities 192,306,528 266,148,679
Retained Earnings/(Deficit) 103,498,935 58,003,420
Stockholders’ Equity 818,704,158 562,899,419
Stockholders’ Equity – Parent 818,704,158 562,899,419
Book Value 1.30 1.19
Income Statement
Item Current Year (3 Months) Previous Year (3 Months) Current Year-To-Date Previous Year-To-Date
Gross Revenue 303,253,785 226,764,638 799,235,469 622,371,238
Gross Expense 261,505,267 189,033,574 698,507,286 559,213,183
Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax 41,748,519 37,731,064 100,728,184 63,158,056
Net Income/(Loss) After Tax 29,219,220 26,998,293 70,495,515 44,042,108
Net Income/(Loss) Attributable to Parent 0 0 0 0
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Basic) 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.12
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Diluted) 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.12

 

But then again, what drives stock prices to go up or down? Supply and demand, no matter how good the company is if the supply and demand for its shares in the market is not attractive then no one’s going to buy it. Let’s look at the stock data.

Status Open Market Capitalization 1,476,072,000.00
Issue Type Common Outstanding Shares 630,800,000
ISIN PHY1804M1000 Listed Shares 630,800,000
Listing Date Apr 27, 2015 Issued Shares 630,800,000
Board Lot 1,000 Free Float Level(%) 47.37%
Par Value 1.00 Foreign Ownership Limit(%) 40%
Last Traded Price Open Previous Close and Date 2.34 (Apr 25, 2016)
Change(% Change) down  (%) High P/E Ratio
Value Low Sector P/E Ratio
Volume Average Price Book Value
52-Week High 3.33 52-Week Low 1.50 P/BV Ratio

What the SWAG is telling us is SMA (20) is over EMA (13) with MFI below 20% oversold and Parabolic SAR about to stop and reverse.

CROWN-05032016

RECOMMENDATION: BUY

HOLDING PERIOD: T+90

As mandated by law, being a Certified Securities Representative, I can not guarantee against loss.