SWAG on $DIS (Disney)


The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American diversified multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios in Burbank, California.Wikipedia
CEO: Bob Iger
Founded: October 16, 1923, Los Angeles, California, United States
Headquarters: Burbank, California, United States
Revenue: 52.46 billion USD (2015)
Net income: 8.38 billion USD (2015)
Subsidiaries: Pixar, Walt Disney World, Marvel Comics, more
Founders: Roy O. Disney, Walt Disney
We’ll skip the fundamentals for now and look at our SWAG signals
DIS
For $DIS, Aladdin will be really excited on how things are taking shape, Money Flow Index is already pointing up meaing smart money is flowing in. SMA20 over EMA13, the next cross is a total no-brainer, the last confirmation we are looking at is the PSAR that will soon change position from bearish to bullish. Definitely not for shorting.
RECOMMENDATION: BUY



SWAG on $TWTR


Twitter is an online social networking service that enables users to send and read short 140-character messages called “tweets”. Registered users can read and post tweets, but those who are unregistered can only read them. Wikipedia
Founded: March 21, 2006, San Francisco, California, United States
CEO : Jack Dorsey
Headquarters : San Francisco, California, United States
Founders:   Evan Williams,  Noah Glass Jack Dorsey
Biz Stone
If you’re trading very liquid securities, fundamentals doesn’t really matter. If you shorted $TWTR other day you lost a lot of yesterday.
SWAG trading system works the same in the US equities market much better than how it works in the Philippine equities market, if you can make money in PSE using SWAG, US markets is way easier.
Let’s look at Twitter’s SWAG chart:
TWTR
Currently, it’s SMA20 over EMA13 which is a clear buy signal and yes, if you bought after the gap down because you saw the death cross (EMA13/SMA20) congratulations, the outcome is always a self-fulfilling prophecy. Can you still buy TWTR? Yes, when the market opens and be ready for the gap to be filled and it will be an elementary textbook play. The other indicators that are ready to confirm the cross is the PSAR which is about to change trend and the money flow index pointing towards 75% overbought meaning the smart money is moving in.
Recommendation: BUY



SWAG on Copper $HGM6


After our successful run up with “coffee” $KCN6 we will be going for another futures trade which is “copper” or HGM6 at the Commodities Exchange (COMEX) in New York. Just like any other futures contract HGM6 has its own specifications.

Contract Specifications:HG_,COMEX

Trading Unit: 25,000 pounds
Tick Size: 0.05 cents/lb. = $12.50
Quoted Units: US $ per pound
Initial Margin: $7,763   Maint Margin: $5,750
Contract Months: All 12 months.
First Notice Day: Last business day of month preceding contract month.
Last Trading Day: Third last business day of the month.
Trading Hours: Open outcry trading is conducted from 8:10 A.M. until 1:00 P.M.
Electronic: 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 A.M. the following day.
Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time.
Daily Limit: $0.20 (20 cents) per pound

 

Unlike KCN6 or “coffee” , HGM6 has no quality check on the actual nuggets, bars or copper ingots or how it will be settled whether physical or cash. But as swing or position trader in the futures we’re only concerned at the current action of the future contract’s market price, so somehow it’s traded like an equity, only more predictable.

SWAG on Copper

HGM6

Robots will advise a “sell”, I will go for accumulate as blue line SMA(20) and red line EMA(13) crosses are imminent which will cause to bring the price of copper up with Parabolic SAR confirming the reversal of trend. Suggested price entries from 211.00 – 209.00 setting the stop loss at 205.00




SWAG on Rocket Internet $RKET


Rocket Internet is a German company I know little about:

  1. It’s listed in XETRA (DAX) or the German stock exchange
  2. It operates ZALORA in the Philippines and is one of the top online shopping sites that keeps Henry Sy and the rest of the traditional retailers up at night.
  3. How it operates, with true German characteristic of success: Thoroughness.

rocket-internet

Rocket Internet is not an investor, they are builders. How do SWAG fits in? Let’s look at the stock data

TYPE OF SHARES ORDINARY BEARER SHARES WITH NO PAR VALUE (STÜCKAKTIEN)
STOCK EXCHANGE FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
MARKET SEGMENT NON-REGULATED MARKET (ENTRY STANDARD)
FIRST DAY OF TRADING 2 OCTOBER 2014
ISSUE PRICE EUR 42.50
SHARES OUTSTANDING 165,140,790
ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL EUR 165,140,790
ISIN DE000A12UKK6
WKN A12UKK
TICKER SYMBOL RKET
COMMON CODE 111314110
THOMSON REUTERS RKET.DE
BLOOMBERG RKET:GR

As of this writing RKET’s free float is 21.5% of the outstanding shares, $TEL is holding 6.1%, The imminent SWAG signals has spoken.

RKet-05102016

The SMA(20) and EMA(13) impending cross is on the horizon, we already entered at 20,20EUR and accumulation is in progress. The nice thing about the German market is it operates with clockwork precision.




Most Traded Currency Pairs


For some people who are starting out on FX, there are so many currency pairs out there that makes FX trading quite overwhelming, there are major pairs and exotic pairs. For this post, I’ll just list down the most traded major pairs so that newbies can get a quick headstart on trading FX. Here we go.

 

EUR/USD (euro/dollar) – “euro”
USD/JPY (U.S. dollar/Japanese yen) – “gopher”
GBP/USD (British pound/dollar) – “cable”
USD/CHF (U.S. dollar/Swiss franc) – “swissie”

Read more: Most Traded Pairs – Forex Walkthrough | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/getting-started/pairs.aspx#ixzz47bWTFTgF
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook




Top Ten Most Traded Commodities


The list of the most common commodities and the exchanges they are normally dealt through are given below:

  1. Crude Oil and derivatives – The most commonly traded commodity is Crude Oil, and its various derivatives such as heating oil and gasoline. These commodities are mostly traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], ICE Futures, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange [DME] and the Central Japan Commodity Exchange [C-COM].
  2. Coffee – The second most traded commodity is Coffee [value wise]. Coffee is mainly traded through the New York Board of Trade [NYBOT], the Kansai Commodities Exchange [in Osaka, Japan], the Singapore Commodities Exchange [SICOM] and Euronext [London].
  3. Agriculture – Common commodities in agriculture include wheat, corn, maize, oats, rice, soybeans and they are traded in the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT], the Kansai Commodities Exchange [in Osaka, Japan], the Risk Management Exchange [RMX-in Hannover], the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange [WCE], The Tokyo Grain Exchange [TGE] and Euronext.
  4. Animals and Animal Products – Animals and animal products such as live and feeder cattle, beef, frozen and fresh pork bellies, and eggs are mainly traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME], Euronext, the Risk Management Exchange [RMX-in Hannover] and the Central Japan Commodity Exchange [C-COM].
  5. Cocoa, Butter, Orange juice and Sugar – Items like cocoa, butter, orange juice and sugar are also commonly traded in the New York Board of trade [NYBOT] and Euronext.
  6. Metals – Metals such as aluminum, nickel, copper, lead and ferrous scrap are mainly traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], the London Metal Exchange [LME], the Shangai Futures Exchange [SFE], the Central Japan Commodities Exchange, Hedgestreet Exchange [in California], and the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
  7. Precious Metals – The other commonly traded commodities are precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum and they are traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX], the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange [BMF], the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange [DGCX], the National Commodity Exchange Limited [in Karachi, Pakistan] and the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].
  8. Plastic –  Plastic is traded in the London Metal Exchange [LME] and the Dalian Community Exchange [DCE-China]
  9. Natural Gas –  Natural gas is traded in the New York Mercantile Exchange [NYMEX] and ICE Futures.
  10. Bio-fuels – Bio-fuels is another upcoming commodity and is now being traded in the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange [BMF], the Bursa Malaysia [MDEX], the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT], the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME] and the New York Board of trade [NYBOT

Commodities_2048x2048

source: http://www.investorguide.com/article/11836/what-are-the-most-commonly-traded-commodities-igu/




Everything You Hear About Apple Is Bad News And It's Good ($AAPL)


Apple Inc. (AAPL), even the non-traders know this company, is on the losing for more than a week. Has it lost its mojo? I don’t care. No cool products coming in? I don’t care, Apple has always been in its element of the cool anyway.

So what makes Apple’s bad news a good news? Well, part of the SWAGGER’s philosophy which is basically textbook philosophy are; Buy On Bad News, Buy On Fear. Anyone can read anything about AAPL elsewhere but I’m focusing on the what really matters from the SWAG perspective. Pulling off the charts we can see SMA(20) blue line over EMA(13) red line meaning a SWAG cross is inevitable that will trigger a technical buy signal but the actual cross is not the point where you should buy, it should be before the cross. The fear is characterized by the direction of the Money Flow Index which is going below 20% oversold. Forget about what the robo-adviser is telling you, entering beyond 20% oversold is really buying the fear. The Parabolic SAR is still in bearish trend which makes AAPL less attractive to the fearful.

aapl

What do you get from buying on bad news? You can buy at the theoretical bottom, you can buy at a better deal, cheaper price and then wait for the SWAG signals to do it’s thing, let the profits run. Sell when happy to the greedy.

 




Crown Asia Outlook


I have created a SWAG cheat sheet where $CROWN is included here

Cheat Sheet

If you like the see the fundamentals here it is, it’s generally getting better.

Annual

For the fiscal year ended : Dec 31, 2015
Currency(and units, if applicable) : Php

Balance Sheet
Item Current Year Previous Year
Current Assets 732,098,166 604,236,040
Total Assets 1,000,023,332 829,048,098
Current Liabilities 132,644,088 251,101,291
Total Liabilities 150,111,755 266,148,679
Retained Earnings/(Deficit) 133,150,397 58,003,420
Stockholders’ Equity 849,911,577 562,899,419
Stockholders’ Equity – Parent 849,911,577 562,899,419
Book Value 1.35 1.19
Income Statement
Item Current Year Previous Year
Gross Revenue 1,078,724,070 852,504,574
Gross Expense 932,372,037 758,782,599
Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax 146,352,033 93,721,975
Net Income/(Loss) After Tax 100,146,977 65,380,323
Net Income/(Loss) Attributable to Parent 0 0
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Basic) 0.17 0.14
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Diluted) 0.17 0.14

Quarterly

For the period ended : Sep 30, 2015
Currency(and units, if applicable) : Php

Balance Sheet
Item Period Ended Fiscal Year Ended(Audited)
Current Assets 748,512,362 604,236,040
Total Assets 1,011,010,686 829,048,098
Current Liabilities 176,586,813 251,101,291
Total Liabilities 192,306,528 266,148,679
Retained Earnings/(Deficit) 103,498,935 58,003,420
Stockholders’ Equity 818,704,158 562,899,419
Stockholders’ Equity – Parent 818,704,158 562,899,419
Book Value 1.30 1.19
Income Statement
Item Current Year (3 Months) Previous Year (3 Months) Current Year-To-Date Previous Year-To-Date
Gross Revenue 303,253,785 226,764,638 799,235,469 622,371,238
Gross Expense 261,505,267 189,033,574 698,507,286 559,213,183
Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax 41,748,519 37,731,064 100,728,184 63,158,056
Net Income/(Loss) After Tax 29,219,220 26,998,293 70,495,515 44,042,108
Net Income/(Loss) Attributable to Parent 0 0 0 0
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Basic) 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.12
Earnings/(Loss) Per Share (Diluted) 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.12

 

But then again, what drives stock prices to go up or down? Supply and demand, no matter how good the company is if the supply and demand for its shares in the market is not attractive then no one’s going to buy it. Let’s look at the stock data.

Status Open Market Capitalization 1,476,072,000.00
Issue Type Common Outstanding Shares 630,800,000
ISIN PHY1804M1000 Listed Shares 630,800,000
Listing Date Apr 27, 2015 Issued Shares 630,800,000
Board Lot 1,000 Free Float Level(%) 47.37%
Par Value 1.00 Foreign Ownership Limit(%) 40%
Last Traded Price Open Previous Close and Date 2.34 (Apr 25, 2016)
Change(% Change) down  (%) High P/E Ratio
Value Low Sector P/E Ratio
Volume Average Price Book Value
52-Week High 3.33 52-Week Low 1.50 P/BV Ratio

What the SWAG is telling us is SMA (20) is over EMA (13) with MFI below 20% oversold and Parabolic SAR about to stop and reverse.

CROWN-05032016

RECOMMENDATION: BUY

HOLDING PERIOD: T+90

As mandated by law, being a Certified Securities Representative, I can not guarantee against loss.




Understand This And Protect Yourself From Hype


Felt like being hyped? Hypers don’t care about your hard-earned capital. First acid test on how not to be hyped, check the company’s Track Record requirement as mandated by PSE.

TRACK RECORD REQUIREMENT
  1. A cumulative consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), excluding non-recurring items, of at least P50 Million for three (3) full fiscal years immediately preceding the application for listing;
  2. A minimum EBITDA of P10 Million for each of the three (3) fiscal years; and
  3. The applicant company must be engaged in materially the same business(es) and must have a proven track record of management throughout the last three (3) years prior to the filing of the application.

Exceptions to the 3-year track record requirement:

(i).  The Applicant Company has been operating for at least ten (10) years prior to the filing of the application and has a cumulative EBITDA of at least P50 Million for at least two (2) of the three (3) fiscal years immediately preceding the filing of the listing application;

(ii). The Applicant Company is a newly formed holding company which uses the operational track record of its subsidiary. However, the newly formed holding company is prohibited from divesting its shareholdings in the said subsidiary for a period of three (3) years from the listing of its securities. The prohibition shall not apply if a divestment plan is approved by majority of the Applicant Company’s stockholders.

  1. A cumulative earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), excluding non-recurring items, of at least P15 Million for three (3) fiscal years immediately preceding the application for listing;
  2. A positive EBITDA was generated in at least two (2) of the last three (3) fiscal years, including the fiscal year immediately preceding the filing of the application; and
  3. The Applicant Company must be engaged in materially the same business and must have a proven track record of management throughout the last three (3) years prior to the filing of the application for listing.

The Applicant Company shall demonstrate its stable financial condition and prospects for continuing growth by providing a business plan indicating the steps that have been taken and to be undertaken in order to advance its business over a period of five (5) years.

As a general rule, financial projections are not required, but should there be references made in the business plan to future profits or losses, or any other item that would be construed to indicate forecasts, then the Applicant Company is required to include financial projections in the business plan duly reviewed by an independent accounting firm.

MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT
Minimum authorized capital stock of P500M, of which, at least 25% is subscribed and fully paid. At listing, the market capitalization of the Applicant Company must be at least P500M. Minimum authorized capital stock of P100M, of which, at least 25% is subscribed and fully paid.
MINIMUM NUMBER OF STOCKHOLDERS
Upon listing, at least 1,000 stockholders each owning stocks equivalent to at least one (1) board lot. Upon listing, at least 200 stockholders each owning stocks equivalent to at least one (1) board lot.
RESTRICTIONS
  1. No divestment of shares in operating subsidiary – A newly formed holding company which invokes the operational track record of its subsidiary to qualify for the track record requirement of profitable operations, is prohibited from divesting its shareholdings in the said subsidiary for a period of three (3) years from the listing of its securities. The prohibition shall not apply if a divestment plan is approved by majority of the Applicant Company’s stockholders.
  2. No secondary offering for companies invoking exemption of track record and operating history requirements, such as mining, petroleum and renewable energy companies and newly formed holding companies during the initial public offering.
  1. No listing of holding, portfolio and passive income companies;
  2. No change in primary purpose and/or secondary purpose for a period of seven (7) years following its listing; and
  3. No offering of secondary securities for companies exempt from the track record and operating history requirements such as mining, petroleum and renewable energy companies.
LOCK-UP
An Applicant Company shall cause it existing stockholders who own an equivalent of at least 10% of the issued and outstanding shares of stock of the company to refrain from selling, assigning or in any manner disposing of their shares for a period of:

(i).  One hundred eighty (180) days after the listing of said shares if the Applicant Company meets the track record requirements; or

(ii). Three hundred sixty-five (365) days after listing of said shares if the Applicant Company is exempt from the track record and operating history requirements.

If there is any issuance or transfer of shares (i.e., private placements, asset for shares swap or a similar transaction) or instruments which lead to issuance of shares (i.e., convertible bonds, warrants or a similar instrument) done and fully paid for within One hundred eighty (180) days prior to the start of the offering period, or, prior to listing date in case of companies listing by way of introduction, and the transaction price is lower than that of the offer price in the Initial Public Offering, or listing price for a listing by way of introduction, all shares availed of shall be subject to a lock-up period of at least Three hundred sixty-five (365) days from full payment of the aforesaid shares.

The lock-up requirement shall be stated in the Articles of Incorporation of the Applicant Company.

An Applicant Company shall cause its existing stockholders to refrain from selling, assigning, encumbering or in any manner disposing of their shares for a period of one (1) year after the listing of such shares.

If there is any issuance or transfer of shares (i.e., private placements, asset for shares swap or a similar transaction) or instruments which lead to issuance of shares (i.e., convertible bonds, warrants or a similar instrument) done and fully paid for within six (6) months prior to the start of the offering period, or, prior to listing date in case of companies listing by way of introduction, and the transaction price is lower than that of the offer price in the initial public offering, or listing price for listing by way of introduction, all shares subscribed or acquired shall be subject to a lock-up period of at least one (1) year from listing of the aforesaid shares.

The lock-up requirement shall be stated in the Articles of Incorporation of the Applicant Company.

Now, check if your ‘hype’ list disqualifies for the track record requirement.




SWAG on $ZHNE


This is one example on how SWAG trading system works on NASDAQ and one particular issue we picked for this subject is Zhone Technologies.

First, a brief description of what Zhone Technologies is.

zhonelogo

Zhone Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZHNE) is a global leader in fiber access transformation for service provider and enterprise networks, serving more than 750 of the world’s most innovative network operators. The IP Zhone is the only solution that enables service providers to build the network of the future today, supporting end-to-end Voice, Data, Entertainment, Social Media, Business, Mobile Backhaul and Mobility service. Zhone is committed to building the fastest and highest quality All IP Multi-Service solution for its customers. Zhone is headquartered in California and its products are manufactured in the USA in a facility that is emission, waste-water and CFC free. If you’re familiar with Soul Of The Market’s Live Stream sessions that is driven by technologies created by Zhone Technologies

If you missed the last rally that started from the SWAG cross of 29 March and lasted until 12 April . Here’s you next chance. Take a look at the chart below with the SWAG’s EMA(13) above SMA(20) with Money Flow Index pointing towards 20% oversold, what does it tell you? It means there’s pretty much an opportunity to buy back once the price weakens further as simple as that then watch the price goes up again before any news and before the next exit signal.

ZHNE-04232016

 

RECOMMENDATION: BUY ON WEAKNESS, ACCUMULATE

HOLDING PERIOD: T+90